Urban sprawl at the expense of cultivated land: decadal land use and land cover changes and future projections in the upper Awash basin of central Ethiopia

Introduction Urban sprawl in developing countries affects future sustainability concerns related to environment, ecology and cropland losses. This study aimed at identifying, classifying quantifying the changes land-use land-cover (LULC) during last two decades (2000–2020) predict decadal pattern for next three (2030–2050), with particular emphasis on urban expense of cultivated land upper Awash basin central Ethiopia. Methods Landsat images were used analyze LULC change dynamics using hybrid image classification maximum likelihood classifier techniques. The Cellular Automata-Markov Chain (CAMC) Model was its dynamics. A detailed analysis cities Addis Ababa, Adama, Mojo also conducted. Results It observed that decades, settlements, particularly sprawls, substantially expanded land, whereas latter modestly forestland, bare shrubland. From size 2000, Ababa has grown all directions towards by more than six times 2020 is expected become double 2050 peri-urban areas basin. Adama city same rate 9.7% past while town sprawled 9 folds between 2010 2020. predicted percentage settlement neighboring districts within 22 km radius from centroid shows a 40% expansion 2030, 77% 2040, 87% compared reference year Similarly, will expand significantly 2030 (54%), 2040 (119%), (by staggering magnitude 244%), 12 18%, 42%, 117% respective decades. Discussion rapid conversions may contribute major shifts ecological environments. Our predictive maps sprawling could be useful effective sustainable policies environmental management